Asia was supposed to be weaning itself off coal. Instead, it is buying more of it. Seaborne thermal coal imports across the region recorded its highest level in July since the Middle East conflict disrupted global energy supply chains in March. China, India and Indonesia are all leaning harder on coal, even as they continue to build renewable capacity at record pace. This is not a story of climate pledges quietly failing, but one of geopolitics, fiscal pressure and energy security colliding, with coal absorbing the shock for all three.

This brief unpacks why the region’s coal dependence is deepening rather than fading, and what that means for governments, investors and companies operating across Asia. It looks at the fiscal arithmetic behind the shift, the stalled progress of the Just Energy Transition Partnerships, and the widening gap between installed renewable capacity and the grid infrastructure needed to use it. It closes with the signposts worth watching over the coming months.

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